On February 14th, 2024, the Atlanta Regional Commission released its newest population forecast for the 21-county region. While the 2050 forecast remains 1.8 million people above today’s levels, it is 700,000 below the former forecast from four years ago. This decline is attributed to declining fertility rates and reduced in-migration growth (from rural to urban), particularly during the Covid-19 pandemic.
The region’s growth hinges on diversity, with racial and ethnic minorities expected to drive nearly all net growth. By 2050, the Hispanic and Latino population is projected to rise to 21% from the current 12%, a huge increase. The aging demographic is also on the upswing, with those aged 75 or older reaching almost 12% by 2050.
Outer counties like Forsyth, Barrow, Paulding, Cherokee, Walton, and Coweta are set for the fastest growth through 2050. Despite the general slowdown, core counties, including Fulton, Gwinnett, Cobb, DeKalb, and Clayton, are expected to contribute significantly, adding 812,000 people by 2050 – nearly half of the region’s total growth.
Out of 856,000 new jobs forecasted, professional and business services are projected to add 130,000 jobs by 2050, alongside notable growth percentages in arts, entertainment, and recreation (68%), professional and business services (38%), accommodation & food service (36%), and manufacturing (35%).
Below are the estimates of our member counties, ranked by percent increase:
- Forsyth County’s population is projected to increase 79%, from 251,283 (2020) to 450,124 (2050) residents.
- Cherokee County’s population is projected to increase 53%, from 266,620 to 408,837 residents.
- Henry County’s population is projected to increase 44%, from 240,712 to 346,392 residents.
- Gwinnett County’s population is projected to increase 25%, from 957,062 residents to 1,200,534 residents.
- Douglas County’s population is projected to increase 24%, from 144,237 to 179,227 residents.
- Fulton County’s population is projected to increase 24%, from 1,066,710 to 1,321,079 residents.
- Cobb County’s population is projected to increase 19%, from 766,149 to 914,448 residents.
- Clayton County’s population is projected to increase 17%, from 297,595 to 348,006 residents.
- DeKalb County’s population is projected to increase 15%, from 764,382 to 880,195 residents.
Click here for the ARC’s press release.
Download the full report